An early warning indicator trained on stochastic disease-spreading models with different noises

arXiv:2403.16233v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: The timely detection of disease outbreaks through reliable early warning signals (EWSs) is indispensable for effective public health mitigation strategies. Nevertheless, the intricate dynamics of real-world disease spread, often influenced by diverse sources of noise and limited data in the early stages of outbreaks, pose a significant challenge in developing reliable EWSs, as the performance of existing indicators varies with extrinsic and intrinsic noises. Here, we address the challenge of modeling disease when the measurements …

abstract arxiv cs.lg data detection disease disease spread diverse dynamics health noise outbreaks public public health q-bio.pe stochastic strategies through type world