Bayesian Intuition Illustrated with Everyday Physics

Updating your beliefs with data is like pouring water into a bucket

Introduction

Let’s play a game. A wizard has chosen a real number, and we need to guess it.

With no additional information, we have no idea what the number is. It could be anything on the real number line.

Fortunately, the wizard is willing to give us a clue. He will randomly draw a number from a normal distribution with a mean …

bayesian bayesian inference bayesian-statistics belief data science physics