Combining Confidence Elicitation and Sample-based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Misinformation Mitigation

Large Language Models have emerged as prime candidates to tackle misinformation mitigation. However, existing approaches struggle with hallucinations and overconfident predictions. We propose an uncertainty quantification framework that leverages both direct confidence elicitation and sampled-based consistency methods to provide better calibration for NLP misinformation mitigation solutions. We first investigate the calibration of sample-based consistency methods that exploit distinct features of consistency across sample sizes and stochastic levels. Next, we evaluate the performance and distributional shift of a robust numeric verbalization …

confidence cs.ai cs.cl framework hallucinations language language models large language large language models misinformation nlp predictions prime quantification sample solutions struggle uncertainty