Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciar\'an

arXiv:2312.02658v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: There has been huge recent interest in the potential of making operational weather forecasts using machine learning techniques. As they become a part of the weather forecasting toolbox, there is a pressing need to understand how well current machine learning models can simulate high-impact weather events. We compare forecasts of Storm Ciar\'an, a European windstorm that caused sixteen deaths and extensive damage in Northern Europe, made by machine learning and numerical weather prediction models. The …

abstract ai models arxiv become case case study cs.lg evaluation forecasting machine machine learning machine learning techniques making part physics physics.ao-ph quantitative storm study type weather weather forecasting