How to Intuit the Prosecutor’s Fallacy (and Run Better Hypothesis Tests)

For data scientists and analysts in business

There is only a one in a million chance that the accused would match the DNA found at the crime scene. So the accused is guilty beyond reasonable doubt. Sound ok? It isn’t!

Based on this evidence alone, the accused may have a good chance of being innocent and this is the logical trap described by the unintuitive but wonderfully illuminating Prosecutor’s Fallacy. …

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