Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI

arXiv:2401.02843v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: In the largest survey of its kind, 2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues gave predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems The aggregate forecasts give at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular musician, and autonomously …

abstract advanced advanced ai ai progress ai systems artificial artificial intelligence arxiv authors chance cs.ai cs.cy cs.lg future impacts intelligence kind least nature predictions progress researchers survey systems type