Will My Robot Achieve My Goals? Predicting the Probability that an MDP Policy Reaches a User-Specified Behavior Target

arXiv:2211.16462v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: As an autonomous system performs a task, it should maintain a calibrated estimate of the probability that it will achieve the user's goal. If that probability falls below some desired level, it should alert the user so that appropriate interventions can be made. This paper considers settings where the user's goal is specified as a target interval for a real-valued performance summary, such as the cumulative reward, measured at a fixed horizon $H$. At each …

abstract alert arxiv autonomous behavior cs.lg policy probability robot stat.me stat.ml type will