An ensemble of data-driven weather prediction models for operational sub-seasonal forecasting

arXiv:2403.15598v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global weather at 1-degree resolution for 4 weeks of lead time. For predictions of 2-meter temperature, our ensemble on average outperforms the raw ECMWF extended-range ensemble by 4-17%, depending on the lead time. However, after applying statistical bias corrections, the ECMWF ensemble is about 3% …

abstract arxiv centre cs.lg data data-driven ensemble forecasting global hybrid medium ocean operations physics.ao-ph prediction prediction models predictions resolution type weather weather forecasting weather prediction