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Coherent Probabilistic Aggregate Queries on Long-horizon Forecasts. (arXiv:2111.03394v2 [cs.LG] UPDATED)
May 27, 2022, 1:11 a.m. | Prathamesh Deshpande, Sunita Sarawagi
stat.ML updates on arXiv.org arxiv.org
Long range forecasts are the starting point of many decision support systems
that need to draw inference from high-level aggregate patterns on forecasted
values. State of the art time-series forecasting methods are either subject to
concept drift on long-horizon forecasts, or fail to accurately predict coherent
and accurate high-level aggregates.
In this work, we present a novel probabilistic forecasting method that
produces forecasts that are coherent in terms of base level and predicted
aggregate statistics. We achieve the coherency between …
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