[D] How would you answer this interview question?

Not sure if this is a “career question” as per the rules but I was recently asked this interview question:

In an F1 car race with 10 cars, how would you calculate/predict the probability of the second- place car overtaking the first-place car? What algorithms, data, and models are needed for this calculation? Explain each step.

How would you answer this? (No other information is given)

algorithms car career cars data interview machinelearning per probability question race rules