[D] When less is more in the hierarchical forecasting case.

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There are many cases when simplicity is preferred over unnecessary complications. This was our experience in our ICML paper on hierarchically coherent networks for constrained probabilistic forecasting (HINT, [https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.07089](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.07089)).

We explored the accuracy of the latest AI-based hierarchical solutions, including AWS' HierE2E, and discovered that the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approaches showed modest improvements or deteriorations over reconciled ARIMA.

With our simplified HINT approach, we moved away from the multivariate inputs and found 13 percent accuracy improvements over existing …

accuracy arima aws case forecasting found hierarchical machinelearning multivariate simplified solutions vector