Double Robust Bayesian Inference on Average Treatment Effects

arXiv:2211.16298v4 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: We propose a double robust Bayesian inference procedure on the average treatment effect (ATE) under unconfoundedness. Our robust Bayesian approach involves two important modifications: first, we adjust the prior distributions of the conditional mean function; second, we correct the posterior distribution of the resulting ATE. Both adjustments make use of pilot estimators motivated by the semiparametric influence function for ATE estimation. We prove asymptotic equivalence of our Bayesian procedure and efficient frequentist ATE estimators by …

abstract arxiv bayesian bayesian inference distribution econ.em effects function inference mean posterior prior robust stat.me stat.ml treatment type