Dynamical System Identification, Model Selection and Model Uncertainty Quantification by Bayesian Inference

This study presents a Bayesian maximum \textit{a~posteriori} (MAP) framework for dynamical system identification from time-series data. This is shown to be equivalent to a generalized zeroth-order Tikhonov regularization, providing a rational justification for the choice of the residual and regularization terms, respectively, from the negative logarithms of the likelihood and prior distributions. In addition to the estimation of model coefficients, the Bayesian interpretation gives access to the full apparatus for Bayesian inference, including the ranking of models, the quantification of …

bayesian bayesian inference data framework generalized identification inference map model selection negative nlin.cd quantification regularization residual series stat.me stat.ml study terms uncertainty