Epidemic Control Modeling using Parsimonious Models and Markov Decision Processes. (arXiv:2206.13910v1 [q-bio.PE])

Many countries have experienced at least two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The second wave is far more dangerous as distinct strains appear more harmful
to human health, but it stems from the complacency about the first wave. This
paper introduces a parsimonious yet representative stochastic epidemic model
that simulates the uncertain spread of the disease regardless of the latency
and recovery time distributions. We also propose a Markov decision process to
seek an optimal trade-off between the usage of …

arxiv bio decision epidemic markov modeling processes