Explain Variance of Prediction in Variational Time Series Models for Clinical Deterioration Prediction

In healthcare, thanks to many model agnostic methods, explainability of the prediction scores made by deep learning applications has improved. However, we note that for daily or hourly risk of deterioration prediction of in-hospital patients, not only the predicted risk probability score matters, but also the variance of the risk scores play key roles in aiding clinical decision making. In this paper, we propose to use delta's method to approximate variance of prediction deterministically, such that the SHAP method can …

applications clinical cs.lg daily deep learning explainability healthcare hospital patients prediction probability risk series time series variance