GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather

arXiv:2312.15796v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ensemble forecast, ENS. Unlike traditional approaches, which are based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), GenCast …

abstract arxiv cs.lg decisions diffusion energy ensemble forecasting medium physics.ao-ph planning public renewable skill speed type uncertain weather