Generative ensemble deep learning severe weather prediction from a deterministic convection-allowing model

arXiv:2310.06045v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: An ensemble post-processing method is developed for the probabilistic prediction of severe weather (tornadoes, hail, and wind gusts) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines conditional generative adversarial networks (CGANs), a type of deep generative model, with a convolutional neural network (CNN) to post-process convection-allowing model (CAM) forecasts. The CGANs are designed to create synthetic ensemble members from deterministic CAM forecasts, and their outputs are processed by the CNN to estimate the probability …

abstract adversarial arxiv convolutional neural network cs.ai cs.lg deep learning ensemble generative generative adversarial networks network networks neural network physics.ao-ph post-processing prediction processing type united united states weather weather prediction wind