Incentive-Aware Synthetic Control: Accurate Counterfactual Estimation via Incentivized Exploration

arXiv:2312.16307v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: We consider the setting of synthetic control methods (SCMs), a canonical approach used to estimate the treatment effect on the treated in a panel data setting. We shed light on a frequently overlooked but ubiquitous assumption made in SCMs of "overlap": a treated unit can be written as some combination -- typically, convex or linear combination -- of the units that remain under control. We show that if units select their own interventions, and there …

abstract arxiv canonical control counterfactual cs.gt cs.lg data econ.em exploration light panel stat.me synthetic treatment type via