Integrating Marketing Channels into Quantile Transformation and Bayesian Optimization of Ensemble Kernels for Sales Prediction with Gaussian Process Models

arXiv:2404.09386v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: This study introduces an innovative Gaussian Process (GP) model utilizing an ensemble kernel that integrates Radial Basis Function (RBF), Rational Quadratic, and Mat\'ern kernels for product sales forecasting. By applying Bayesian optimization, we efficiently find the optimal weights for each kernel, enhancing the model's ability to handle complex sales data patterns. Our approach significantly outperforms traditional GP models, achieving a notable 98\% accuracy and superior performance across key metrics including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean …

abstract arxiv bayesian channels cs.lg ensemble forecasting function kernel marketing optimization prediction process product quantile sales sales prediction stat.ap study transformation type