Lightning-Fast Thunderstorm Warnings: Predicting Severe Convective Environments with Global Neural Weather Models

arXiv:2406.09474v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: The recently released suite of AI weather models can produce multi-day, medium-range forecasts within seconds, with a skill on par with state-of-the-art operational forecasts. Traditional AI model evaluation predominantly targets global scores on single levels. Specific prediction tasks, such as severe convective environments, require much more precision on a local scale and with the correct vertical gradients between levels. With a focus on the convective season of global hotspots in 2020, we assess the skill …

abstract ai model art arxiv cs.lg environments evaluation global lightning medium physics.ao-ph prediction skill state targets tasks traditional ai type weather