On automatic calibration of the SIRD epidemiological model for COVID-19 data in Poland. (arXiv:2204.12346v1 [stat.ME])

We propose a novel methodology for estimating the epidemiological parameters
of a modified SIRD model (acronym of Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and
Deceased individuals) and perform a short-term forecast of SARS-CoV-2 virus
spread. We mainly focus on forecasting number of deceased. The procedure was
tested on reported data for Poland. For some short-time intervals we performed
numerical test investigating stability of parameter estimates in the proposed
approach. Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of short-term
forecasts (up to 2 weeks) and stability …

arxiv covid covid-19 data poland