Predictive Performance Comparison of Decision Policies Under Confounding

arXiv:2404.00848v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing decision-making policy that is generally under-specified and dependent on unobservable factors. These sources of uncertainty are often addressed in practice by making strong assumptions about the data-generating mechanism. In this work, we propose a method to compare the predictive performance of decision policies under …

abstract arxiv comparison confounding cs.cy cs.lg decision however making performance policies policy predictive predictive models stat.me tasks type uncertainty