Quantifying the Effects of Contact Tracing, Testing, and Containment Measures in the Presence of Infection Hotspots. (arXiv:2004.07641v6 [cs.LG] UPDATED)

Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a
single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission
dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail
to capture this aspect by neither representing the sites visited by individuals
explicitly nor characterizing disease transmission as a function of individual
mobility patterns. In this work, we introduce a temporal point process modeling
framework that specifically represents visits to the sites where individuals
get in …

arxiv contact tracing effects hotspots testing tracing