[R] Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy

In a new paper, researchers demonstrate that an ensemble of LLMs can match human-level performance at forecasting, potentially replacing the need for large, expensive human forecasting tournaments.

Key points:

- LLMs can achieve human-level forecasting accuracy through aggregating predictions from diverse models
- This "wisdom of the silicon crowd" approach parallels the well-established "wisdom of the crowd" effect in humans
- In Study 1, an ensemble of 12 LLMs significantly outperformed a baseline and matched a crowd of 925 human …

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