Random cohort effects and age groups dependency structure for mortality modelling and forecasting: Mixed-effects time-series model approach. (arXiv:2112.15258v1 [stat.AP])

There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk
given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue
for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd
(CBD) model, which incorporates cohort effects parameters in its parsimonious
design, is one of the most well-known approaches for mortality modelling at
higher ages and longevity risk. This article proposes a novel mixed-effects
time-series approach for mortality modelling and forecasting with
considerations of age groups …

arxiv forecasting mixed modelling random time