Sept. 8, 2023, 4:51 p.m. | Gabriel de Longeaux

Towards Data Science - Medium

The Paradox Series #1

The Two Envelopes Problem

How time and causality are emerging from randomness

The two envelopes problem, leading to paradoxical and inconsistent decisions, appears when using an intuitive but wrong Bayesian probability estimation to determine the best course of action. Correcting for the mathematical mistake is simple, but there is more to it: first, by modifying the problem very slightly, we can make it undecidable — an example of language ambiguity as opposed to mathematical formalism; second, …

bayesian bayesian inference causality course decisions paradox probability series simple thoughts-and-theory two-envelopes-problem

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