Changes by Butterflies: Farsighted Forecasting with Group Reservoir Transformer

arXiv:2402.09573v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: In Chaos, a minor divergence between two initial conditions exhibits exponential amplification over time, leading to far-away outcomes, known as the butterfly effect. Thus, the distant future is full of uncertainty and hard to forecast. We introduce Group Reservoir Transformer to predict long-term events more accurately and robustly by overcoming two challenges in Chaos: (1) the extensive historical sequences and (2) the sensitivity to initial conditions. A reservoir is attached to a Transformer to efficiently …

abstract arxiv butterflies chaos cs.cl cs.lg divergence events forecast forecasting future long-term transformer type uncertainty