Churn prediction: A data imbalance issue, or something else?

TLDR: My binary churn prediction model performs way better in development than production. I've listed a few reasons why I think that is, and I'm seeking community help to verify & learn through my mistakes in the process.

Hi! I've been working on a churn model at work. It is to be used to predict once per month, which users will churn in the next 30 days. The model performed much better in development (train/test) compared to initial production run. …

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