Machine learning and economic forecasting: the role of international trade networks

arXiv:2404.08712v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify significant shifts in the network topology driven by rising trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis highlights key global players through centrality rankings, with the United States, China, and Germany maintaining consistent dominance. Using a horse race of supervised regressors, we find …

abstract arxiv cs.lg data econ.gn economic economic growth effects forecasting globalization growth identify improving international international trade machine machine learning network networks physics.soc-ph q-fin.ec role study topology trade trends type